Feel free to comment, share opinions. There are a lot more house races and it’s harder to draw clear distinctions when ranking them compared to ranking the US Senate races. I am posting this to get feedback, and to compare information.
I also don’t want the diary to be too long, so I’m not going to post financial information on here, but I will link SSP’s two diaries.
Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (Everything except IN and NC)
And Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (IN and NC)
*** = Retiring Incumbent/Open Seat
DCCC’s Red to Blue List: http://www.dccc.org/page/conte…
====House Republicans====
1. New York-25*** (D+3)
Dan Maffei v. ???
2. Illinois-11*** (R+1)
Debbie Halvorson v. ???
3. New Jersey-03*** (D+3)
John Adler v. Chris Myers
4. Arizona-01*** (R+2)
Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay
5. New Jersey-07*** (R+1)
Linda Stender v. Kate Whitman
———————————————————————
6. Minnesota-03*** (R+1)
Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson
7. Michigan-07 (R+2)
Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg
8. New York-26*** (R+3)
Jon Powers v. ???
9. Ohio-15*** (R+1)
Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers
10. Ohio-16*** (R+4)
John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring
11. Alabama-02*** (R+13)
Bobby Bright v. Harri Anne Smith
———————————————————————
12. Louisiana-06*** (R+7) Special Election – May 3rd
Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins
13. New York-29 (R+5)
Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl
14. Washington-08 (D+2)
Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert
15. Missouri-06 (R+5)
Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves
16. Florida-24 (R+3)
Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney
17. Alaska-AL (R+14)
Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young
18. Virginia-11*** (R+1)
Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian
19. Connecticut-04 (D+5)
Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays
20. North Carolina-08 (R+3)
Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes
21. Michigan-09 (R+0)
Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg
22. Illinois-10 (D+4)
Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk
23. Virginia-05 (R+6)
Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode
24. Nevada-03 (D+1)
Robert Daskas v. Representative Jon Porter
25. New Mexico-01*** (D+2)
Martin Heinrich v. Darren White
26. Mississippi-01*** (R+10) Special Election – May 13th
Travis Childers v. Greg Davis
27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)
Robert Gaw v. Bob Onder
28. Colorado-04 (R+9)
Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave
———————————————————————
29. Louisiana-04*** (R+7)
Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman
30. Ohio-01 (R+1)
Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot
31. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19)
Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon
32. California-04*** (R+11)
Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock
33. Idaho-01 (R+19)
Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali
34. Ohio-02 (R+13)
Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmitt
35. Arizona-03 (R+6)
Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg
36. West Virginia-02 (R+5)
Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore
37. Virginia-02 (R+6)
Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake
38. Florida-13 (R+4)
Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanon
39. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2)
Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent
40. Texas-10 (R+13)
Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul
———————————————————————
41. New Mexico-02*** (R+6)
Bill McCamley v. Ed Tinsley
42. Ohio-14 (R+2)
William O’Neill v. Representative Steven Latourette
43. New Jersey-05 (R+4)
Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett
44. Texas-07 (R+16)
Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson
45. California-50 (R+5)
Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray
46. Florida-21 (R+6)
Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart
47. Florida-08 (R+3)
Charles Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller
48. Nevada-02 (R+8)
Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller
49. Florida-25 (R+4)
Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart
50. Alabama-03 (R+4)
Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers
51. Florida-18 (R+4)
Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen
52. Illinois-06 (R+3)
Jill Morgenthaler v. Representative Peter Roskam
53. Indiana-03 (R+16)
Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder
54. Indiana-04 (R+17)
Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer
55. California-26 (R+4)
Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier
56. Pennsylvania-03
Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English
57. Pennsylvania-18
Steve O’Donnell v. Representative Tim Murphy
58. Illinois-18*** (R+5)
Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock
59. Pennsylvania-05*** (R+10)
Mark McCracken v. Glenn Thompson
60. Florida-10 (D+1)
Linn Max v. Representative Bill Young
====House Democrats====
1. Oregon-05*** (D+1)
Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson
2. Texas-22 (R+15)
Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson
3. Kansas-02 (R+7)
Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun
4. Florida-16 (R+2)
Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey
———————————————————————
5. Alabama-05*** (R+6)
Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker
6. Georgia-08 (R+8)
Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard
7. Kentucky-03 (D+2)
Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup
8. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)
Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart
9. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)
Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley
10. Indiana-09 (R+7)
Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel
11. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)
Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett
12. Arizona-08 (R+1)
Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee
13. New York-20 (R+3)
Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell
14. Indiana-08 (R+9)
Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode
15. California-11 (R+3)
Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal
———————————————————————
16. Arizona-05 (R+4)
Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert
17. Connecticut-05 (D+4)
Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello
18. Connecticut-02 (D+8)
Representative Joe Courtney v. Sean Sullivan
19. North Carolina-11 (R+7)
Representative Heath Schuler v. Spence Campbell
20. Texas-23 (R+4)
Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson
21. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)
Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard
22. Ohio-18 (R+6)
Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey
23. Georgia-12 (D+2)
Representative John Barrow v. John Stone
24. Indiana-02 (R+4)
Representative Joe Donnelly v. Luke Puckett
25. Minnesota-01 (R+10)
Representative Tim Walz v. Dick Day
26. New York-19 (R+1)
Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor
Notes:
– In contests where the primary has not yet occured, I have picked the person who has fundraised the most.
– 60 Vulnerable/Potentially Vulnerable House Republicans
– Prediction is 20-30 Democratic pickups in the US House
– Current Breakdown of the US House 234D-198R Representatives (3 Outstanding)
– Projected Outcome of the US House 256D-179R Representatives
– 25 Retiring Republicans
Tiers:
(Republicans)
Tier 1 – Races #1-#5 = Likely Democratic Pickup
Tier 2 – Races #6-#11 = Lean Democratic Pickup
Tier 3 – Races #12-#28 = Toss Up
Tier 4 – Races #29-#40 = Lean Republican Retention
Tier 5 – Races #41-#60 = Likely Republican Retention
(Democrats)
Tier 1 – Races #1-#4 = Toss Up
Tier 2 – Races #5-#15 = Lean Democratic Retention
Tier 3 – Races #16-#26 = Likely Democratic Retention
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The predictions of primary winners in a lot of district with very close primaries that have not yet happened.
I can see people are far as 49 winning which says a lot about our prospects.
In a landslide I think we win 40 seats. More likely is around 20 seats.
As of now my randomly picked number would be a 22 seat gain.
you really take kirkpatrick as one of our blowout pickup opps? i suppose i’d say she has the edge, but arizona seems like it’ll have mccain coattails, it’s a slightly republican district, there’s still time for a better recruit to come into the picture, and even hay should be able to catch up with fundraising in the long run…
ashwin madia’s one of the challengers i’m most excited about, but i wouldn’t pick him as much better than a toss-up yet given his unorthodoxy as a candidate and that his opponent seems far better than par so far as the NRCC goes… and bobby bright i’d put towards lean republican more easily than lean democrat, given that his poll leads must be based on name recognition. his fundraising was only 50k or so, but i’m not clear on how much of the quarter he was actively fundraising…
i’d contrast that with a few that seem overly pessimistic… whoever wins the primary to succeed Tom Davis (hope it’s byrne instead of connolly) should be a shoe-in, i’d think the same for mary jo kilroy… darcy burner, jim himes, martin heinrich, larry kissell with have significantly better than even chances…
but otherwise i’d say your representation of our chances is pretty damn close to how i would’ve put it if i had the wherewithal myself to sort through all those damn races…
I would take out IN-03, IN-04 and PA-05, which are all very tough Republican districts.
In their place, I would add:
PA-06 (D+2): We didn’t get a top-tier candidate this time, but with two 51% victories in 2004 and 2006, Gerlach should still not be considered safe.
NY-13 (D+1): Fossella has less than $250K COH to fend off the Democratic primary winner.
VA-10 (R+5): Judy Feder is competitive with Wolf in fundraising and the demographic trends continue to favor Democrats.
As a resident of FL-24th I know all too well how far out of touch Feeney is for this district which is slightly right of center at R+3. Feeney constantly lies about his record. I’ve received mail from him telling me how he strongly supported minimum wage increases and a “responsible” SCHIP renewal… yeah right! I also know Suzanne Kosmas personally and she is the real deal. She’ll continue to raise boatloads of cash and give Feeney the fight of his life. Remember, Feeney personally drew his own district during the 2002 redistricting. He included wealthy suburban parts of Orlando such as his hometown of Oviedo which are VERY favorable to him. Brevard could be a swing area this time around and Kosmas lives in the Democratic leaning Volusia county part of the district (as do I). She’ll have to run her numbers up in Volusia bigtime and have a strong showing in Brevard to have a chance. Considering Clint Curtis who had virtually no money or name ID took over 40% of the vote in 2006 it’s certainly possible.
However as far as ranking Florida contests I have FL-08 as the only race in the 25 most competitive. I’m familiar with FL-08, and that district is quickly trending our way more so than my own district.
Florida’s map was drawn to max out the number of Republican districts by giving many Repub congressmen R+4 or less districts. Just enough to keep them in office. They run the same risk as PA or OH in that a favorable Democratic year could wash them away. Thankfully for us this may be that year.
Right now I’d put the Florida races ranked in this order of most likely to flip:
FL-08, FL-13, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25, FL-18, FL-10
At this point I’d predict a net gain of +1 or 2 in FL.
if the Repub candidate who was a featured speaker at a Nazi meeting celebrating Hitler’s birthday gets their nomination. He did get 30% of the vote in the 2006 primary against Chocola so it’s not out of the question he could win their nomination.
Quite a group those republican congressional challengers are… they have a friend of the Nazis (IN-02)and also a eugenics advocate (TN-08)and a guy with KKK connections (LA-06) all running this year.
The aggregate number of 20-25 pick-ups strikes me as likely as there may be a handful of Dem losses.
As with others, I think that VA 11 should be more strongly ranked. Similarly I think that the ranking of Ashwin Madia in the ‘Leans Dem’ is unverfiable at this point. I certainly hope it develops this way, but right now I don’t see evidence of it. I’m surprised that you rank Bobby Bright as ‘Leans Dem’ in AL 02. Isn’t this premature? And I wonder about Tom Perriello in VA 05 in the toss-up category. Does polling support this? And does OH 16 really rate a ‘Leans Dem’?
Finally I wonder if Jim Himes really is in a toss-up position re Shays. Perhaps I’m still feeling burned by the defeat of Diane Farrell in ’06, but she TOO was ‘supposed’ to win. Knocking off Shays is an extremely daunting task. Voters in CT 04 seem to avert their eyes from his Iraq record and smile lovingly at his positions like, say, that on the environment. They’ll raise roughly the same amount of $, but I fear that his entrenched incumbency will be difficult to overcome. God knows, there is no one who wants more to purge the last Repub Congressman from New England than I am. I fear, however, that thoughts about this race tend towards wishful thinking.
It seems that in 5 or 6 months some of questions I’ve cited about may be resolved positively. Right now however, I think some of these may be a bit premature.
running again.
I think he will file and drop out so he can pick the canidate.
I just don’t think he wants another term. Maybe his wife. Maybe someone else but I don’t think it will be him and hopefully we will have a good canidate.
I don’t mean to be overconfident, but I feel 85% certain that seat is going to flip next week.
I don’t see NJ-07 as a LIKELY flip, nor do I see it in NJ-03. Could we win both? Sure. But I think they are not the locks that NY-25 and IL-11 are.
This was a very tough race in ’06. Lots of family involvement here and with Lamont made the outcomes painful.
I can no longer remember the exact amount the DCCC kicked in, but it was substantial. Also I no longer recall how much of Shays’ money came from within the district and how much was rained down from above. I have the uneasy feeling, however, that $ isn’t going to make a lot of difference here UNLESS the discrepancy between the campaigns is enormous. I don’t think it will be.
My sense is that it’s more of a question of convincing voters there that Shays’ support of McBush policies in Iraq are SO crippling that for that reason alone he should be defeated. In other words, this requires person-to-person, on-the-ground work–LOTS of activism. I HOPE Himes will be more convincing than Diane was in ’06, but at this point I’m unsure.
I could be wrong on this, but if it is the Anzalone-Liszt poll you are referencing, he did not have a huge lead over state Senator Harri Ann Smith. As I recall, his lead in that internal poll was 43-38.
Food for thought…